A new independent survey of 125 rail business leaders has revealed a marked fall in confidence across the UK rail market, with companies slowing recruitment, cutting staff and preparing for a potential hiatus in work over the next year.
The Savanta survey, conducted in October and November 2025 for the Railway Industry Association (RIA), shows growing concern among suppliers despite rising passenger numbers, increasing freight demand and recovering revenues.
Key findings include:
- 64% of leaders expect the rail market to contract in the next year, up from 48% last year; only 12% anticipate growth.
- 62% of rail businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount, with 34% making redundancies.
- Confidence in individual businesses remains comparatively resilient: 44% expect to grow over the next 12 months.
- 85% believe a hiatus in rail work is likely, with many preparing to prioritise overseas contracts or pause recruitment.
Darren Caplan, RIA Chief Executive, said:
“These are concerning findings for the railway industry. Rail passenger, freight and revenue levels are rising and more capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling and businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount. However, it is positive to see that individual rail businesses are generally more confident in their own ability to grow, albeit in a significant number of cases such growth being in overseas markets.
“The Railway Industry Association and our members have been warning for years about ‘boom and bust’ in rail infrastructure and rolling stock investment, and we have voiced concerns about a hiatus in work as rail currently restructures. This survey is further evidence that more needs to be done to give rail suppliers the confidence they need to compete for work and invest in their business plans and teams for 2026; otherwise, talented people and skills will be lost to other sectors and to overseas markets.”
Caplan added:
“RIA and our members want to be optimistic about a positive future for UK rail and we recognise major rail projects such as the Transpennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail, Midlands Rail Hub, and Docklands Light Rail extension. But significant steps do need to be taken in the short term to bring more confidence to the rail market now.
“The Government needs to provide more detail about the rail enhancements projects in its Infrastructure Pipeline and produce a rolling stock strategy and pipeline as soon as possible. There needs to be clarity given on plans for innovative forms of funding, whether private or Third Party. And major rail clients need to set out their short and medium term spending plans without delay, especially given we now know the Government’s Spending Review and Budget priorities. These measures can help mitigate the current market confidence concerns, and provide certainty for suppliers as rail is restructured and Great British Railways is established in the years ahead.”
