At a time of geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal pressure and accelerating climate risk, infrastructure investment is increasingly being judged not just on scale, but on resilience, value and delivery.
A new report from Boston Consulting Group, Infrastructure Investments in an Uncertain World, argues that getting this balance right is now critical to long-term economic performance. For the UK rail sector, the findings land squarely in the middle of a pivotal period of reform and renewal. The report suggests that Ministers should focus on investment into energy and digital infrastructure rather than road and rail.
From a rail and road perspective, the report takes a clear, evidence-led position: transport infrastructure remains economically vital, but its value is highly context dependent, and in mature economies the emphasis must shift from expansion to quality, resilience, and strategic upgrading.
For developed countries, including the UK, the report shows that simply adding more road or rail capacity delivers relatively modest growth returns. The network is already extensive; the constraint is no longer access, but performance. The strongest gains come from improving the quality of existing assets. On roads, this means prioritising motorways and strategic corridors over minor road expansion. On rail, the implication is similar: modernisation, reliability, capacity enhancement, and better integration matter more than basic route mileage. Aging infrastructure and ineffective delivery are identified as the primary brakes on growth.
In developing and fast-growing economies, the position is different. Transport infrastructure, particularly rail, has a much higher growth elasticity because it unlocks regional productivity, connects labour to markets, and links domestic production to trade routes. Here, new rail lines and road links can be transformational. The report is explicit that transport investment delivers its strongest returns where it removes structural bottlenecks rather than marginally improving already well-served networks.
The report also draws an important distinction between roads and rail in terms of purpose. Road investment in developed economies yields higher returns when it focuses on high-quality strategic routes, while rail investment is most powerful when it improves connectivity that supports wider economic objectives, such as freight efficiency, regional development, or access to global markets. Transport projects succeed when they are clearly aligned to an economic strategy, not when they are pursued as standalone schemes.
Crucially, the report frames rail and road infrastructure as instruments of resilience as well as growth. In a more volatile geopolitical environment, reliable domestic transport networks underpin economic security, supply chains, and labour mobility. However, with resources constrained, the report argues strongly against diffuse spending. Policymakers must prioritise fewer, better-chosen transport projects, sequenced alongside skills, planning, and delivery reform.
In short, the report’s position is pragmatic rather than expansionist. For rail and road in developed economies, the case is not “build more,” but “build smarter.” Focus on upgrading critical corridors, fixing delivery inefficiencies, and aligning transport investment with long-term economic and industrial goals. Where that discipline is applied, transport infrastructure remains a powerful driver of growth. Where it is not, returns diminish quickly.
Infrastructure as a stabiliser, not a luxury
BCG’s core message is clear: infrastructure investment is no longer discretionary. In volatile conditions, it acts as an anchor for productivity, competitiveness and long-term growth. Transport infrastructure, particularly rail, plays a central role by enabling labour mobility, supporting regional economies and reducing carbon-intensive travel.
For UK rail, this should reinforce the strategic importance of programmes such as the Transpennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail and targeted electrification. These schemes are not simply capacity upgrades; they are foundational to economic resilience, especially as passenger demand and freight requirements evolve over the coming decades.
Governance and certainty unlock value
One of the report’s strongest themes is the importance of clear, stable governance. BCG argues that uncertainty around regulation, decision-making and long-term priorities is one of the biggest deterrents to efficient investment and private capital participation.
This has direct relevance as the UK moves towards Great British Railways. If GBR is to succeed, it must provide clarity on long-term strategy, transparent decision-making and consistent interfaces with industry and investors. Stability, rather than constant structural change, is what ultimately reduces risk and improves outcomes.
Fewer projects, better chosen, better delivered
BCG cautions against equating ambition with volume. The greatest returns come from selecting the right projects and delivering them well, not from spreading investment too thinly. Poor prioritisation and weak delivery discipline are repeatedly identified as the root causes of cost overruns and delays.
For UK rail, this echoes hard-won lessons from past major projects. A sharper focus on portfolio management, realistic sequencing and early risk mitigation could materially improve value for money. This is particularly relevant as funding pressures intensify and scrutiny from taxpayers and passengers grows.
Mobilising private capital, intelligently
The report highlights the growing gap between infrastructure needs and public funding capacity, arguing that private capital will be essential to bridge it. However, private investment only flows where risk is understood and returns are credible.
In a rail context, this points towards targeted opportunities rather than wholesale privatisation. Station redevelopment, digital signalling, freight logistics hubs and property-led regeneration are all areas where blended funding models could work—provided the policy framework is stable and commercially credible.
Climate resilience moves centre stage
Climate adaptation is no longer a future concern. BCG identifies resilience as a defining feature of modern infrastructure investment, covering everything from extreme weather to energy efficiency and asset monitoring.
UK rail is already experiencing this reality through flooding, heat-related disruption and asset degradation. The report reinforces the need to embed resilience into investment decisions, not as an add-on but as a core requirement. Digital monitoring, smarter maintenance and electrification are not just efficiency measures; they are resilience strategies.
A timely message for UK rail
Commenting on the new Boston Consulting Group report which suggests UK Ministers should focus investment on energy and digital infrastructure rather than road and rail, Railway Industry Association (RIA) Chief Executive Darren Caplan said: “No infrastructure exists in isolation, so it is shortsighted and unhelpful to suggest prioritising one form over another.
“Rail supports over £40bn in GVA and £14bn in Treasury revenues. A pound spent on rail generates £2.50 in wider economic benefit, and for every one of the 640,000+ jobs in the rail industry a further four jobs are supported elsewhere in the UK economy. And that’s not even to mention the significant social value of rail investment.
“The rail network is also the spine onto which future housing, energy and telecoms investment can be built – so Ministers should consider this report in the round rather than in isolation, and consider the benefits of co-ordinating public investment rather than favouring other forms of infrastructure over transport.”
Taken together, BCG’s analysis aligns closely with the challenges facing the UK rail industry. Long-term investment remains essential, but success will depend on sharper governance, better project discipline and a clear focus on value rather than volume.
As rail reform gathers pace and major programmes move from planning to delivery, the lesson is straightforward: in an uncertain world, infrastructure must be planned for certainty. For UK rail, that means stable strategy, credible delivery and investment decisions that stand the test of time.
